许小年论中国向市场经济转型（二）
<DIV><P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN></SPAN></B></FONT> </P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>政府的</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>更可怕</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在货币政策的操作上，对于理论界长期争论的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>相机抉择</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>还是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>基于规则</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，实践也给出了回答。若想用货币政策削平经济周期的波峰和波谷，央行要有超人的智慧和技巧。由于微观经济单位的调整需要时间，货币政策从执行到发挥作用存在着时间上的滞后，央行必须事先准确预测经济的运行，在恰当的时点上、以恰当的力度和恰当的工具操作货币政策，方能收到预想的效果。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>如果在时点、力度和工具上出现哪怕是很小的差错，调控的结果可初衷可能大相径庭，甚至适得其反。弗里德曼和施瓦茨用令人信服的数据表明，在战后</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年中，美联储的货币政策非但没有稳定美国经济，反而引起和放大了经济的周期振荡。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>说来不无讽刺意味，限制央行的必要性竟来自于凯恩斯主义。央行行长也是凡夫俗子，既有普通人的理性，也有普通人时常表现出来的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。 较之个人的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，政府的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>可以给经济造成更大的伤害。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯认为企业和个人具有</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，他们乐观和悲观情绪交替轮换，造成经济从景气到萧条的循环。政府可以并且应该审时度势，带有前瞻性地运用宏观经济政策，进行反向操作，保证经济的平稳运行，这就是上面提到的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>相机抉择</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>弗里德曼针锋相对，他强调预测未来经济形势和政策操作的困难，并引用数据指出，实践中的货币政策引起而不是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>熨平</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>了经济的波动。这一实证研究的政策含义是不言而喻的：欲稳定经济，必先稳定货币。弗里德曼有此提出了货币发行的固定规则，比如说每年增加</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">3%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，或是与</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>增长同步，禁止中央银行随意改变货币的供应数量。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>弗里德曼虽然没有明确地讲</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>作为政府的属性，他对政府的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>完美理性</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>显然充满了怀疑。实际上，凯恩斯主义经济学最大的问题还不是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，而是其逻辑的不一致性或者非自洽性</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(Inconsistency)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>市场弥漫着</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，政府则充满了人类理性；市场有可能失灵，政府却永不失灵；市场上的交易是有成本的，政府的政策成本为零；市场上存在着信息不对称，政府却拥有充分的信息。至于目标函数，企业与个人是贪婪的，只追求一己私利；而政府是仁慈和高尚的，以社会福利为己任。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在这些假设下，不必建立数学模型，不必进行理论分析，假设已经决定了结论。在令人眼花缭乱的数学推演背后，凯恩斯主义者证明的只是假设，以及假设的直接逻辑结果</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>完美的政府解决非完美的市场。凯恩斯主义关于政府的假设在现实中是不成立的，政府的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>丝毫不亚于私人部门，中国</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1959</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年到</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1961</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的经济历史即为一例。在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>超英赶美</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>大跃进</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>等不切实际的经济发展目标下，大规模的动员资源将投资率 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>固定资产投资对</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>之比</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>从</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1958</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">15%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>急剧拉升到</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1959</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">30%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>政府的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在西方亦非罕见。如上面所提到的，美联储在</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1930</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代雪上加霜的货币紧缩，日本央行</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1980</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代一手制造的资产泡沫，以及格林斯潘</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">2001</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年之后过于松宽的货币政策，都像是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的经典案例。同样经不起推敲的是</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>政府为公</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的假设。希腊破产，多个欧洲国家陷入债务泥潭，如果真的是在追求公众利益，就不应该有债务危机。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>根据正统凯恩斯主义的说法，在经济萧条时，政府减税和增加开支以刺激需求，财政赤字和政府负债因此而上升；当经济转入繁荣时，财政政策反向操作，政府增加税收和削减开支，财政会出现盈余。繁荣期的盈余抵消萧条期的赤字，在一个完整的经济周期上，可实现财政预算的平衡。理论上听起来完美无瑕，为什么在实际执行中，各国政府都是负债累累而鲜有盈余呢？原因正是政府的自利动机。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>减税和增加政府开支如福利、补贴和投资等等，对选民有实惠，有助于捞到选票，政客乐此不疲。加税和减少财政开支却是不讨好的事，即使经济形势好转，也没有人愿意为长期的预算平衡而得罪选民，在政客们的眼里，自己今天的官位远比国家的未来重要的多。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>个人的非理性冲动也是局部的，收到其他市场参与者的制约；个人必须承担自己决策失误的后果，也就是面临着</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>预算硬约束</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。中央银行在决定货币政策时，既没有制衡，也不必对政策后果负责，即</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>预算软约束</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，决策者们的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>随着货币政策散步到经济的各个角落，形成系统性风险。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在一致性假设下比较个人与政府的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>凯恩斯主义经济学的结论不再成立，为了减少经济的波动，公众应该立法规范货币政策，限制甚至禁止</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>相机抉择</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>式的政策干预干预，中央银行更像是一个规则的执行者，而不是现在这样的政策制定者。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>至于货币政策规则应该是什么，泰勒法则还是弗里德曼的固定增长率？基本上市一个实证问题，理论是很难提供先验的指导。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>转型之重，重在法制</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>世界历史上曾多次出现过这样的时期，特别是在大动荡和大灾难之后，例如</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1930</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代的大萧条、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1990</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年代苏联的解体，以及这次国际金融危机。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在西方，当一场漫天大火行将毁掉大厦时，惊恐的居民将安全的希望寄托在消防队身上，为了避免灭顶之灾，人们愿意或者不得不放弃更多的个人自由和权力，让政府扮演救世主的角色。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>然而，这个世界上没有免费得午餐，扑灭大火之后，消防队并不想退出历史舞台，借口灾后重建以及防止悲剧的重演，他们得以保持强势的地位，继续干预社会的正常经济活动。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在转型中，旧体制倒塌了，新体制却不能立即建立起来，经济的萎缩和社会的失序唤起人们对往日的回忆，政治家们如俄国的普京利用民众对现实的不满，对内加进控制经济和社会，对外高调与西方对抗，试图重建集权专制之路。这是一条危险的道路，但似乎又是经济和社会转型的必经之路。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>俄罗斯人可以在一夜之间打碎旧的中央计划体制，却不可能在一夜之间建立新的法制体系，可见转型之难，不在于打破旧体系，而在于建立新制度。市场的有效运行离不开制度的支持。市场经济以自愿的交易为基础，交易即产权的交换，交易顺利完成的前提是产权的界定和保护。若无产权保护，市场就有可能变成战场，抢劫和欺骗将取代互利的计算，成为配置支援的主要方式。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>若想防止暴力配置资源，社会必须保护产权和保证契约的执行，这就需要一个完善的法律体系。法律的作用是惩罚侵权者和违约者。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>法律如同核武器，并不天天使用，也没有必要天天使用，法律通过威慑也就是预期违约成本阻止违约的企图，法律系统自身的公信力因此就格外重要。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>纸面上的法律条文是否严谨，立法和执法者的态度是否虔诚，承诺是否庄重，对法治的公信力没有实质性影响，决定公信力的是法律系统与政府的关系，以及公众的权利和法治意识。为了保证公正性，法律系统必须独立，既对于政府，亦独立于公众，政府不得干预司法程序，民情舆论亦不得影响法庭判决。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>公众的权利意识和法制意识是法治的基础，公众要懂得依法捍卫自己的权利，抵制政府及其他社会集团对自己权利的侵犯。公众的法治意识越强，从人治到法治的社会转型就越快。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>从市场经济和法治的关系看问题，就不难理解，为什么俄罗斯</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>大爆炸</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>式改革的短期结果是产出的下降和腐败的盛行，原因不在于私有化，而在于法治体系和法治观念的缺失。以德意志为例，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1848</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年的革命动摇了保守的普鲁士专制王权，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1862</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年俾斯麦出任宰相，以铁血手段，重建国王政府权威，并通过战争建立了德意志帝国。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在俾斯麦的领带下，统一的德国很快崛起成为新的世界强权，同时也为第一次世界大战埋下了伏笔。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">1918</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>年德国战败，孱弱的魏玛共和国内外交困，局势的动荡和经济的萧条使德意志民族再一次将希望寄托在强人身上。强人确实出现了，希特勒趁机攫取了政权，在短时间里扭转了局面，德国经济复苏，国际地位迅速提升，希特勒随机发动了第二次世界大战。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>二战之后，德意志民族如梦方醒，痛定思痛，彻底抛弃了权威主义的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>德意志道路</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，转向以个人自由和权利为基础的宪政民主制度，以及适应个人自由和权利的市场经济，至此方完成了长达一百多年的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><A href="http://car.auto.ifeng.com/brand/20046" target=_blank><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #004276; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>现代</SPAN></B></A></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>化转型。与其他国家转型经济不同，中国以保持现有社会和政治结构基本不变为前提，在经济层面上推进有限的私有化、自由化和市场化的改革，市场发挥了配置资源的作用，私有制对创新和勤勉工作产生了强大的激励。渐进式的改革保证了社会和经济的稳定，稳定的环境带来稳定的预期，资产所有者选择持续经营而不是出售套现，中国经济得以高速增长，避免了预期剧烈波动引起的产出收缩。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN><FONT size=3><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>可持续的增长</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>是靠制度而不是规划</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>政府作为现有规则的执行者和现有秩序的维护者，发挥着更多的只能，但由于缺少制约，政府不断地延伸和扩大其职能，越来越多地参与和干预经济活动，逐渐转变成为有着自己利益诉求的规则执行者和秩序维护者。也就是通常所讲的亲自下场踢球的裁判。裁判捅过管制和审批</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>造租</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”(Rent-making),</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>然后在市场上寻租 </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">(Rentseeking)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>套现。利益使然，裁判已失去了继续改革的动力，半管制半市场的现状是最理想的，深化和扩大市场改革会削弱造租潜力，他也不想退回计划经济，因为那可能意味着失去套现的场所</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>将权力转化为金钱的场所。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>另一方面，民众对改革的失望也日渐增加。与经济繁荣并存的是机会的严重不均，贪污腐败盛行，收入两极分化。当基尼系数从改革开放初期的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">0.24</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>上升到接近</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">0.5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>时，民众开始质疑</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>让一部分人先富起来</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，怀念共同贫穷的计划经济年代，寄希望于一个强势的政府，以压迫性的手段</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>替天行道</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>劫富济贫</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，实现较为平均的收入分配。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>一些人当然也看到了，正是由于裁判员下场踢球，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>寻租</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的暴利富了一批官员和商人，造成收入分配恶化，对策应该是政府退出经济而不是更多的干预。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>但对策为什么没有被采纳呢？常识告诉人们，政府退出经济将是一个艰难和长期的过程，而强化政府的干预往往可收立竿见影之效。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>这样的社会成本</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">-</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>效益分析已固化为传统文化的一部分，在过去的两千年中，对明君清官的期盼一直是民众生活勇气的源泉，对于现代社会的个人权利以及保护个人权利的法治，他们如此陌生，以至于习惯性地将自己的命运交给政府。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>中国也遭遇了转型的内在不协调性，经济已经市场化或半市场化了，支持市场运行的制度以及作为这些制度基础的社会观念仍然停留在旧时代。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>转型经济陷入一个令人尴尬、但看上去又相当稳定的纳什均衡。无论多么稳定，这均衡注定要被打破。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>社会已形成多远的经济利益格局，在缺少公平的利益博弈平台和博弈规则的情况下，人们只能靠现存集权体制调解多元里可以冲突，若调解失败则继之以强力压制，长期积累的矛盾最终可能以极端的方式爆发。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>当若政府以</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>国家整体利益的维护者</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>自居，一方面为资方平息劳工风潮，实行国内市场的关税保护，鼓励和支持大企业组织，提高垄断程度和垄断利润，另一方面，政府为工人建立包括医疗、工伤、福利在内的全面社会保障体系，缓和社会矛盾。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>两面讨好的政策需要物质基础，政府必须保证经济的持续增长，拿出更大的蛋糕，才能使劳资双方都感到满意。当国内市场无法支持经济增长时，对外扩张便是唯一的出路，民族主义自然成为堂皇旗帜。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>除了外部冲突，内部社会矛盾的激化也可能引发现有均衡的偏离。作为利益仲裁者和秩序维护者，官僚精英阶层不仅掌握了物质与金融资源，而且拥有制定游戏规则的权利，他们必然要李彤所有这些优势，在市场经济的三方博弈中，最大化自己的利益。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>这就不可避免地要伤害消费者和企业的权利，破坏社会公平，从而丧失自身的公信力。消费者和企业这时会要求在制定规则上拥有更大的发言权，要求限制政府的权利，加强对政府的监督。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>为了维持现有均衡，缓和消费者和企业的不满，政府同样有着强烈的发展经济的冲动，只有不断地做大蛋糕，才能在保证了自己的特殊利益后，仍有剩余分配给消费者和企业，实现</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>有人收益而无人受损</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>的帕累托改进。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>在政府主导的转型中，对高增长的偏好是这个体系内在逻辑的必然结果，但政府推动经济增长是不可持续的，现有的均衡因此也不具备可持续性。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>新古典经济学的增长理论告诉我们，紧靠资源投入的增加无法维持经济增长，资源再多终归有限，政府动员资源的能力越大，资源消耗越快，经济停滞或衰退的到来也就越快。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>可持续增长的关键是创新，创新带来的效率的提高，在资源使用数量不变的情况下也可实现经济的增长。如熊彼得所定义的，创新是新技术的大规模商业应用，创新者在市场上敏锐的捕捉新的商业机会，以出色的想象力预见性地开发新产品，引导消费潮流和技术潮流，等待客户与市场的承认。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>创新的过程充满了风险，为了激励创新，要给创新者足够的回报，为此社会必须保护创新者的知识产权，以及从知识产权获得的巨大商业利益。社会也要创造一个宽松的环境，允许甚至鼓励创新者个性的张扬，允许甚至鼓励各种各样的奇想。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>由这些条件所决定，创新的主题只能是企业家而不是政府，创新的主战场只能是市场而不是政府办公室，创新靠的是制度而不是政策和规划。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>同样从这些条件可知，传统社会仅有发明而无创新，若想实现创新驱动的可持续经济增长，社会转型乃必要条件。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>人，我说的是你、我这样的人；你、我这样的凡夫俗子，乃世间的万物之灵；抬起你的头来，重拾你的信心，不要为你的</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>动物精神</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>而丧失勇气和尊严；因为所有的人</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b">-</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>包括那些组成政府的人</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">--</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b">-</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>和你一样，都未彻底脱离动物界；</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>从来就没有什么救世主，也不靠神仙皇帝</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>，要想使这个世界更美好，</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>全靠我们自己</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体" lang=ZH-CN>。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN> </SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 10.5pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 9.4pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-line-height-alt: 9.0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'" lang=ZH-CN></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman','serif'; COLOR: #2b2b2b"><o:p></o:p></SPAN> </P></DIV>
页:
[1]